Another surprising factor could be the amount of water vapor way up in the stratosphere, according to a new study out Thursday in the journal Science.

Water vapor, a potent, natural greenhouse gas that absorbs sunlight and re-emits heat, is “a wild card” of global warming, says the paper’s lead author, senior scientist Susan Solomon of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Boulder, Colo. Solomon was also a co-chair of one of the groups within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that put out the definitive forecast of global warming in 2007.

In the Science paper, Solomon and her colleagues found that a drop in the concentration of water vapor in the stratosphere “very likely made substantial contributions to the flattening of the global warming trend since about 2000.”

While climate warming is continuing — the decade of 2000 to 2009 was the hottest on record worldwide — the increase in temperatures was not as rapid as in the 1990s.

The stratosphere is the layer of the atmosphere just above the troposphere, which is the layer of air here at the planet’s surface. (The troposphere goes from the surface up to about 8 miles, and the stratosphere is from about 8 to 30 miles above the surface.)

The decline in water vapor in the stratosphere slowed the rate of surface warming by about 25%, compared to that which would have occurred due to carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, notes the study. Specifically, the planet should have warmed 0.25 degree F during the 2000s, but because of the influence of the water vapor, it rose just 0.18 degree F.

“We call this the 10/10/10 paper,” says Solomon. “10 miles above your head, there is 10% less water vapor than there was 10 years ago.”

Why did the water vapor decrease? “We really don’t know,” says Solomon, “We don’t have enough information yet.”

The findings are “surprising,” says Bill Randel, an atmospheric chemist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, who was not part of the study. He said it was surprising how big an effect such a very little change in stratospheric water vapor has had on the surface climate.

These fluctuations in water vapor could be part of a feedback loop. Although it’s known that water vapor in the troposphere increases as the climate warms — and is a major climate feedback that is well simulated in global climate models — in sharp contrast, models do a poor job of simulating water vapor in the stratosphere, according to the paper.

But Solomon points out this isn’t an indication that predictions on global warming are overstated: “This doesn’t mean there isn’t global warming,” notes Solomon. “There’s no significant debate that it is warmer now than it was 100 years ago, due to anthropogenic (man-made) greenhouse gases.”

And how will this water vapor affect future global warming? “We really don’t know the answer to this,” says Solomon. “If the water changes are due to the specific way the sea-surface temperature pattern looks right now, then it may well not be linked to the overall warming. It could just be a source of variability from one decade to another as the ocean pattern slowly changes. Or it could be linked to the overall warming of the tropics, in which case it could continue to ‘put the brakes on.’ Only time will tell, and more data.”

Contributing: Associated Press

-JIM FREY

You can (and should) always be different with your advertising. Because when you are… you accomplish your #1 goal.

GETTING NOTICED! OUTRAGEOUS doesn’t always mean getting wild (like me on the cover of my newest book, where I’m wearing a straightjacket). It can be as simple as changing the font in a letter you send to prospective customers so it looks like you wrote it with your own hand.

Thinking Differently

The clutter of advertising messages can be overwhelming to your prospect. But by cutting through it and understanding that there are only three possible responses — “yes,” “maybe,” or “no” — you have the best chance of getting a “yes” or “maybe” if you do something OUTRAGEOUS enough to get noticed.

For example, I owned some menswear stores before I became a marketing strategist. And to promote one of our sales, I decided to write a handwritten letter to my customers.

OUTRAGEOUS! But my letter was more than just handwritten. It appeared to have been written extemporaneously — with big letters and small, wildly drawn parentheses, scratch-outs, and hand-drawn arrows pointing to a side note. And it was on yellow legal pad paper.

Plus, get this — it was five pages! C’mon! No one sends out a five-page handwritten sales letter! No one! I mean, who would read it?  Well, it turned out that lots of people read it. But more on the results later. First, take a look at the letter.

OUTrageous Produces Results From… EVERYONE

You might find it interesting to know that this five-page handwritten letter won the prestigious Multi-Media RAC Award at the 2002 Retail Advertising Conference.

But winning an award doesn’t pay the bills. Money pays the bills, and this advertisement was my most successful ever. In fact, from 1996 to 2006, I delivered 18 direct-mail campaigns per year, each and every year. That totals 180 different campaigns. While most of them were successful, the five-page handwritten sales letter printed on yellow paper received the highest response of any of them.

Who responded? Presidents of banks. Board members of Fortune 1000 companies. Accountants, doctors, and lawyers. They came to our sale because there was a piece of mail in their mailbox that could not be ignored.

It looked handwritten. It looked important. So when the bank president/doctor/lawyer came home from work, his wife gave him an envelope and she said (we were later told), “You’ve got to see this. It looks important.”

And it was important. OUTRAGEOUSLY important! Now think about that. People who you would think would not respond to five pages of UGLY handwriting responded. These are educated, professional, affluent people — and they responded to a handwritten sales letter.

Whenever I do a presentation at a seminar and show many of my OUTRAGEOUS examples to attendees, one or two of them always come up to me afterward and say… “While what you showed us was great, my customers won’t respond to that kind of advertising. They’re too sophisticated for it.”

No, they’re not! If it’s interesting, people will respond to it. Everyone responds to OUTRAGEOUS advertising.  That’s exactly why I wrote my recent bestselling book about OUTRAGEOUS advertising. Ninety-nine percent of small-business owners and entrepreneurs are dissatisfied with the results they get from their current advertising. But it doesn’t have to be that way. Remember, EVERYONE responds to OUTRAGEOUS advertising.

OUTRAGEOUS Ideas Are Everywhere

Once I started developing the concept of OUTRAGEOUS advertising, I was always looking for opportunities to use it. Mostly because it works. But partly because it’s fun.

I often view my vacations as marketing opportunities. For example, when my wife and I were on vacation in Greece, I had a picture snapped of me on a donkey. I put it on a postcard and sent it to the customers of my menswear stores and the members of the Glazer-Kennedy Insider’s Circle.

One of my best marketing campaigns stemmed from a cruise my wife and I took to Alaska. Prior to the cruise, I saw a postcard of the ship with Alaska in the background. I liked it. I thought it would be a nice thing to send to my customers.

But first, I wanted to OUTRAGEOUSLY personalize it. So on the front of the postcard, I wrote this: “Even when I’m on vacation, I’m thinking of you…” Then, atop the cruise ship, I drew a little stick figure with an arrow pointing to it that said “ME.”
And on the back of the postcard, I put a coupon for $10 off any purchase with a “respond by” date.

I had 10,146 customers. So I went to my printer and had them print up 10,146 of these postcards. I had the cards addressed and stamped. But since I was actually headed to Alaska, of course I wanted them to have an Anchorage postmark.

When my wife and I arrived at our hotel in Anchorage, I went up to the desk clerk and asked if I could mail postcards there. She smiled and said, “Sure.” So I reached down and picked up my box of 10,146 postcards. I smiled back and said, “I wrote them all last night — and my arm is killing me!”

Needless to say, we all had a big laugh. And when my wife and I returned home from our cruise, I found out that the postcard campaign had been a huge success. As I said… OUTRAGEOUS advertising not only works, it is fun! In fact, it became the most enjoyable and fun thing I ever did in my business.

Try it and see for yourself. [Ed. Note: Bill Glazer is one of the top marketing strategists in the world. Together with the legendary Dan Kennedy, he provides money-making advice to hundreds of thousands of entrepreneurs and business owners in every imaginable category. Bill has the unique ability to combine proven and effective direct-response marketing strategies with OUTRAGEOUS advertising that cuts through the clutter, gets noticed, and gets results.  – JIM FREY

Posted by Seth Godin on January 20, 2010

- Jim Frey

// Warren Buffett gets opportunities the rest of us don’t. He’s the name-brand investor companies go to when they need cash or a smidge of reputation in a hurry.

I have previously chronicled the crazy-sweet terms Goldman Sachs and General Electric (NYSE: GE) gave Buffett . How crazy-sweet? They begged Buffett — technically his company, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A) — to lend them money at a guaranteed 10% plus equity upside.

But before you get too jealous, know that this wasn’t always the case.

How Buffett made his opportunities
Let me take you back to a time when Buffett wasn’t worth 11 figures. Back to a time when he had only five figures to work with.

In his 20s, Buffett’s eventual avalanche was just a snowball. All his name could get him was a dinner reservation … if he called ahead.

So he had to work to find deals to invest in — deals that would form the basis of his fortune. He sought out the master investors of his time, including his hero Benjamin Graham, and learned everything they would teach him.

But more than anything, he did the legwork that others weren’t willing to do. In this time before the Internet, he’d physically go to Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s to read old reports, to the SEC to read filings, and to company headquarters to talk with management.

His persistence was rewarded handsomely, particularly in tiny, underfollowed companies. In Buffett’s own words: “I would pore through volumes of businesses and I’d find one or two … that were just ridiculously cheap.”

How cheap? In one six-year period, he grew his wealth by more than 60% a year. By age 26 he had amassed so much wealth that he considered retirement.

How Buffett lost his opportunities
Of course, he didn’t retire. In the decades since, he’s continued putting up incredible returns, and he’s laid claim to the unofficial title of greatest investor ever.

But with all this wealth comes a problem.

That problem is exemplified by Buffett’s recent purchase of the Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad — which he admits wasn’t a particular bargain.

The man who has absolutely throttled the market for more than five decades now says, “Reasonable return is good enough. … I mean, 50 years ago, I was looking for spectacular returns, but I can’t — I can’t get them.”

Why the surrender? One word: size.

Berkshire Hathaway is roughly the size of a General Electric, a Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), or a Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO). Buffett’s empire has grown so large that the small multibaggers he used to stalk no longer make a dent in his portfolio’s returns.

For Buffett, analyzing and buying a small-cap stock has roughly the same cost-benefit as us walking a mile to pick up a quarter. Instead, he’s stuck stalking elephants like Burlington Northern, which is roughly the size of a Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), an Altria (NYSE: MO), or a MasterCard (NYSE: MA).

Jim Frey

WASHINGTON — President Obama signed the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) appropriations bill on Saturday, which included $125 million to continue through Feb. 28, 2010, the enhancements made possible through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) to SBA’s two largest loan programs. The SBA estimates the additional funding will support $4.5 billion in small business lending.
New approvals of loans with the higher guarantee and reduced fees made possible by ARRA are expected to begin by Dec. 28. Loan applications from borrowers who chose to be placed in the SBA’s Recovery Loan Queue will be funded first, followed by new loan approvals beginning on or before Dec. 28.
“This Administration and Congress recognize that these key programs were successful in helping jump-start the economic recovery for America’s small businesses,” said SBA Administrator Karen Mills. “The increased guarantee and reduced fees on SBA loans helped put more than $16.5 billion in the hands of small business owners and brought more than 1,200 lenders back to SBA loan programs. The extension of these programs through February is important to continuing our path toward recovery and will mean thousands more small business owners have access to the credit they need.
“Just two weeks ago, President Obama laid out key aspects of his jobs plan, including significant ongoing support for small businesses. We will continue to work with Congress on moving those proposals forward, including extending these loan enhancements as the President has called for, to ensure that small business owners have the tools they need to drive economic growth and create jobs in communities all across the country.”
As part of ARRA, SBA received $730 million, which included $375 million to increase the SBA guarantee on 7(a) loans to 90 percent and to waive borrower fees on most 7(a) and 504 loans. More information about the waived fees can be found here. The funds for these programs were exhausted on Nov. 23.
SBA created the Recovery Loan Queue as part of its transition back to pre- ARRA lending on Nov. 23 because previously approved loans are sometimes canceled or never disbursed for a variety of reasons. Eligible small businesses, in consultation with their lender, could choose to be placed in the queue for possible approval of an ARRA loan if funding became available. Currently there are 1,069 loans totaling almost $530 million in the Recovery Loan Queue.
The extension included in the DOD bill authorizes the higher guarantee levels through Feb. 28, 2010. The fee relief is authorized until this additional funding is exhausted or the end of the fiscal year, whichever comes first. As was the case in November, SBA will transition into a queue system as the funds start to wind down in order to ensure the maximum simulative effect of the programs and disbursement of funds.
For non-ARRA 7(a) or 504 loans funded during the transition period, this extension does not provide a retroactive guarantee or waived fees. Loans that were funded under non-ARRA terms cannot be canceled and resubmitted to take advantage of the ARRA extension provisions.
This extension does not affect other SBA ARRA programs, including the America’s Recovery Capital (ARC) loan program or the agency’s microloans. ARRA funding still remains for both of those programs.
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Jim Frey